Tuesday, June 3, 2014

Dollar rally may adversely effect Nifty

Nifty rose last day supported by banking stocks. As always banking sector was key player just a day before the RBI policy announcement. Tues day policy announcement will be the first one after new union government. RBI is committed to control the growing inflation than the slowing industrial growth. We should wait and watch what RBI governor decided to show before pro growth prime minister.

I am also watching the Rupee direction. I am not much convinced about last day’s rally in stocks. Rupee continued its straight fall for the third day. US dollar as of now trading at 80.71. Dollar index already broken its technical resistance. All technical indicators support buying in US dollar index. We expect this will adversely effect Rupee. RBI expected to keep the interest rates unchanged according to the analysts consensus. RBI has the history of surprising the market . Even a rise in interest rate can be expected at this time if you are thinking in an economical point of view. We are not speculating on RBI policy now. Let’s wait and watch.

Nifty trading levels for today

We assumes Nifty showed a over expectation from RBI on Tues day. Fundamentals indicates a negative note. I cannot correlate Mondays Nifty move with true fundamentals. I am expecting sell of in Nifty in coming days of the week. Market expected to be less volatile today with a bearish note. We are not expecting big up swings today. Excella Trader initiates a sell call in Nifty futures below 7350. 



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