Nifty made 2.1% decline today. Nifty was sliding down along with Global
markets. This was clearly predicted by our technical analysis which is
published in our website www.excellatrader.com.
Why we use technical analysis?
This is pure chart analysis to find out the risks than to
find out the entry points. Determine the
current trend is main objective. Look at Nifty charts. No one can be convinced
if you say the trend is positive. For the last one year nifty is showing a sluggish
performance. It is not crashing but it is making few lower lows. There is no secret to find the trend.
All moving average indicators signaling sell in Nifty. But we are not completely relying on moving
averages. Along with this we consider other technical indicators too. On the daily
chart Nifty MACD is showing at 3.170. Here we took 12 and 26 day moving
averages. We found a positive value and this may indicates buy. Out of 11
technical indicators we used 4 is showing positive signals where as 3 signals
indicate a sell. 4 signals showed a neutral call. It’s a confusing game. But we
can dig in deep to get meaningful trading idea for Nifty tomorrow. Whether
market discounted the negative news or it is ready to slide to the last time
support of 7600.
All questions will be answered partially here. Still we are
relying on technical because this indicators representing the crowd behavior.ROC indicator is showing positive. When we plotted in daily
chart indicates above 0.50. This was 12 Day ROC. I took 6 months and 1 year
ROC. We under stood 1 year ROC IS clearly showing a positive indicator. We have
reduced the time period. Those who bough Nifty 3 months back is still happy
where as those who entered a year ago is started getting the pain. We are going
with the shorter term for the time being and likes to buy when Nifty start to
making a recovery. Let’s analyze the best buying pint for Nifty. We are happy
with ADX and stochastic oscillators as of now. In volatility front we are
comfortable as VIX is still showing 0.89 which is comparatively low if we
compare it with 1 year ago.
Overall Nifty has taken a slide. But it is not a hard crack.
If Nifty falling below 7600, then the scenario will be different. So here we do
not need to sell Nifty in tomorrow market if it is showing a slight negative
note. Instead we have to look on a buy point if it crosses over the moving
averages.
What Excella Trader says?
7831 may be a good buying point with a stop loss below 7800.
If futures coming down to 7788, then it indicates further sell is coming.
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