Tuesday, February 9, 2016

How to time market ?

Sometimes people do not understand the meaning of sit on cash. I can agree if a novice investor can’t digest the idea of siting on cash for a while. Then what is going to happen the investment companies’ lead by so called analysts still making an opposition to sit on cash ideas. This is what happened in the year 2008 and 2009. When banking systems collapsed all over the world, I was rushing to cash my remaining holdings from the GCC banks in which some have US derivative holdings. I heard lot of curse from my peers and colleagues for exiting from the GCC banking sector. But, now looking back I am happy and my decision was justified from many who were beaten and hammered by the bears in banking shares.

I am not an advocate of sit on cash for a long time. You need to rebalance your portfolio giving more weightage to bonds and defensives. Even high dividend yield stocks can play a big role in making your portfolio shining in such bad times. When you are sitting on cash you are making a psychological war with yourself. When market goes up you think, ‘no it’s not the actual reversal, it will come back again’ Same way if market falls you still believe a big correction is yet to happen. From 2011 to 2015 stock markets were rallying. I don’t know if any one made super market timing in these years.

I heard the Enfield or Eicher Motors story some market preachers used to say in seminars. Okey, agreeing Enfield went up from 600 to 16000 in 15 years. Who was really holding the stock of Eicher motors for such a long time. ‘Yes’ one person stood up and said. ‘I bought share in year 2000 for a price of 600 and I sold it for a price of 15000 in the year 2015’. Every one gave him a big clap. After the sound of claps ended this great investor said “actually I forgot the holding and I never knew this share was lying in my demat account.” This is actually happening. Anyone can boast on the rosy stories of Eicher motors or Infy after watching the historical returns.

In 2011 when market stared reversing so called market pundits were spreading the scary stories and questioning the strength of rally. But market not cared and it went in its own way. They were predicting the collapse of U S dollar double dip recession etc. The same pundits were talking about the Eicher motors stories.

My advice to customers is to use certain technical system for investing. Before entering in to stock market analyze your investment character. Are you a trader or an investor? This is very important because methods and systems may vary as per the investment target.

I have made a day trading system for intraday traders. If your personality is not suitable for intraday, then even a good technical system may not able to save your portfolio. I am also introducing a positional trading system which is making a complementary method of market timing and optimization. I am sure those who are not actively trading in the market can make use of this new software system. I am not claiming this system can make you super rich. But I am sure careful use of this software can really make you outperforming in long run.

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