Wednesday, August 31, 2016

WHAT’S GOING TO THE IMPACT OF THE FED RESERVE RATE CUT OR HIKE ON NIFTY, SENSEX & EQUITY? ANY GUESSES?

The US Fed is likely to raise rates of interest based on the job data that is expected this Friday. In the normal course this is an indicator of impending upheaval on account of spiraling Sensex. It should ideally lead to a 5-6 percent correction in global markets. Yet, this will most likely not be the case. In the run to this phenomenon markets would have already priced accordingly in the past few months.

Nifty corrections in the last month have been meagre. The nifty rallying has been sideways instead of the normal vertical movement. This indicates reduced liquidity, which will help to keep a check on markets. 

Particular markets like IT show promise for long term buyers. With their reduced rates it would be a buyers’ market for IT. Indian auto industry will be safer than the foreign ones. 
To talk in specific terms about certain companies, increasing JLR sale and sturdy orders in Tata Motors will keep them going. However, no big increase in their equity is predicted. 

It is a touch-me, touch-me-not reaction of the US Fed Reserve to the global markets on the basis of Rate Hike or Rate Cut expected. The is likely to be a US Fed rate hike in the coming months. Yet, there is no likelihood of any chaotic financial dislocation in the market as they have already been in this process in the past months and Sensex corrections will only be minor. 

The Nifty is countering continuous resistances at 8,700. In the past one month the Nifty has been expanding sideways. There have been minor corrections, but with hardly any depth in them. The markets seem to have exhausted their potential to enthusiastically soar. One could say that the sensex will fly indeed, not as an eagle, but as a fowl. 

Talking in specific terms, let’s look at a company like Infosys. Around a year and a half ago there was a mad rush in the market for its shares. Now it all of a sudden seems to have lost the sheen. The rate cut is presenting long term buying opportunity though. The difference between demand for Tata Consultancy Services stocks and that of Infosys is reducing, as opposed to the big disparity seen a year ago. In the coming few months there is no upsurge expected in Infosys. Yet, this downside phenomenon has implications only for major shareholders.

If there a correction on account of the US Fed rate hike then it will be milked by the Sensex. In any case it is not going to be more than 6 percent correction, and such a small correction would not have the potential to impact equity colossally. The upswing in the past few months have already cushioned it, and now the jolt won’t hurt too much. The comforts levels of Sensex have already been enjoyed during the run up to 8,700/- The climb now will not be as easy. Here on, the fruits can indeed be reaped, but not as easily

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